Kathy bought into one of those Super Bowl pools at work. Squares cost $5.00.

She just told me the big winner won two quarters.

I don’t get it. Why would anyone bet $5.00 just for a chance at 50¢?

I think he got soaked.

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Any statistician will tell you that if you flip a quarter fifty times, and it comes up “heads” every time, the chances of it coming up “heads” on the next flip are still 50/50. I don’t believe it.

I say it’s like this: The probability of two “heads” in a row is 1-in-4. Of three “heads”: 1-in-8. Of 21 in a row? 1-in-2,097,152. Of 100? 1-in-79 million million million million million.

And you’re telling me the next flip is still 50/50? Yeah, sure.

And tomorrow my ATM’s gonna spit me out an extra twenty.

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I figure if you lose $10 in blackjack, you’re really losing $20. The ten you lost, and the ten you could have had. $20. So if you win, you win $10—but if you lose, you lose $20.

No wonder it’s a losing game.

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So here we are playing poker. Kathy and Niece Robin and me. All night long I’m getting bupkis. Folding, losing. Getting bupkis. One time I tried to bluff my way through, and then had to show my bupkis.

Granted, I probably helps if you don’t go WOO! HOO! every time you draw a good card.

I gotta work on that.

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I enjoy playing poker with my nephew. It’s fun, and he’s always been good. Sometimes I think a little too good—I’m getting suspicious. Last time we played he won a big jackpot by laying down four aces and a “Get Out of Jail Free” card.

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You ask any mathematician, statistician or probability expert and they’ll tell you if the coin comes up heads nine times in a row, the chances of it coming up heads again are 50/50. I don’t think so. I think the fact that the odds against ten in a row, namely 1023-to-1, should factor in there somewhere.

I’m wrong of course. I don’t care.

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